《大行報告》大摩下調國藥(01099.HK)目標價至20.6元 評級「與大市同步」
摩根士丹利發表報告,指國藥控股(01099.HK)過去幾年分銷增長放緩至單位數,反映了政策壓力,包括報銷控制;最近六輪集中採購導致平均降價超過50%侵蝕毛利率;處方藥銷售流向社區藥房。該行將國藥目標價由21元下調至20.6元,重申評級「與大市同步」。
報告表示,行業增長點轉向欠發達的零售渠道,國藥一直將投資重點轉向零售藥房和醫療科技,其零售點數量目前是全國最大,但截至2020年僅分別佔國藥收入和經營利潤的5.2%和3.8%。
大摩上調國藥醫療科技和零售藥房的銷售預測,將其2022至2024年的盈利預測上調2%至3%,指國藥作爲國有企業,能獲得優惠的信貸利率、與大型製藥和醫療技術公司的合同中標率高、有強勁的資產負債表。
該行預測,國藥2021至2023年間收入和盈利複合年增長率分別爲13.1%和6.8%,與國藥控股現相當於預測2022年市盈率5倍的估值相比,認爲股價上行空間中等,主要的下行風險是仿製藥的持續降價和疫情延長。
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