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《即日市評》內地LPR利率降 恆指逼近兩萬五 內房股強
受科網股及友邦(01299.HK)等帶動下,恆指今日升越100天平均線(約24,608點),進一步逼近兩萬五關。市場關注美債孳息及美聯儲收緊貨幣政策,美股道指及納指昨各跌1%及1.2%,執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率跌至1.845釐,美匯指數跌至95.47,美股道指期貨最新升102點或0.3%,納指期貨最新升0.34%。人行今日將一年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調至3.7%,上次爲3.8%;將五年期以上LPR下調至4.6%,上次爲4.65%。上證綜指全日跌3點或0.09%收3,555點、深證成指跌0.06%,內地創業板指數跌0.3%,滬深兩市成交額共1.13萬億人民幣。 港股今日顯着造好。恆指高開135點後升幅擴大,並以全日高位24,952點收市,升824點或3.42%。國指升319點或3.79%,收8,761點;恆生科技指數升253點或4.5%,收5,896點。大市全日成交總額1,783.74億元按日升55%,滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入29.96億及43.22億元人民幣。 【恆指越百天線 科網股受追捧】 中央網信辦指有關出臺互聯網投融資規範屬不實訊息,科網股彈高,騰訊(00700.HK)及阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)股價各急升6.6%及5.9%,美團(03690.HK)彈高11%,京東(09618.HK)揚6.5%。渣打財富管理高級跨資產策略師林景蔚表示,留意到近日有投資者沽售美國科技股,以補回中資科技股短倉,料科技股仍具反彈空間。 中國平安(02318.HK)股價彈高7.2%,招行(03968.HK)股價上揚4.6%。中金髮表報告表示人行今起如期下調LPR,指降息的影響包括MLF下調導致內銀負債成本節約;第二是LPR下調銀行貸款收益率下降;第三是市場利率中樞也可能相應下降。該行測算此次降息對內銀對淨息差負面影響約1.9個基點,相當於淨利潤2%。相比淨息差壓力,該行指內銀股信用成本是現階段影響利潤的主要因素,穩增長政策有助於改善銀行資產質量預期。中金繼續看好內銀股全年「否極泰來」。 【升股達千一隻 內房股有支持】 港股今日主板市寬向好,主板股票的升跌比率爲26比15(上日爲19比21),上升股份1,100只(升幅2.9%),恆指成份股53只股份上升,下跌股份10只,升跌比率爲83比16(上日爲54比39);大市錄沽空297.21億元,佔可沽空股份成1,504.84億元的19.75%(上日爲20.148%)。 碧桂園(02007.HK)完成發行5.2億人幣ABS,加上融創(01918.HK)如期償還兩筆人債,內房股普遍持續舞高。融創股價抽升15.2%,世茂(00813.HK)揚12.1%,中國恆大(03333.HK)上揚4.7%。大和發表報告表示,市場傳出當局擬讓內房開發商更容易獲得託管賬戶中的預售資金,以解決行業嚴重財困的問題。 該行認爲,倘若消息屬實,對內地開發商的現金流和償債能力有積極影響,相信內房信貸政策最壞時期已經過去,但行業並未完全走出困境,維持對內房「中性」立場,續看好財政能力較強內房股,包括括龍湖(00960.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)和旭輝(00884.HK),均予「買入」投資評級。
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