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《大行報告》高盛上調今明兩年油價預測 上調中石油(00857.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)目標價
高盛發表研究報告,將2022及2023年布蘭特期油價格預測,由原先每桶81及85美元,上調至每桶分別96及105美元,指出疫情下全球庫存低企,估計經合組織的庫存至今年夏季將降至2000年以來的最低點,OPEC的備用產能亦降至2004年以來最低水平,因此預期油價將提升以推動庫存上升。 高盛表示,若市場供需要達到平衡,預期長期油價將上漲至每桶90美元,布蘭特期油現貨價格至2023年或達到每桶105美元。該行指,亞洲油企缺乏積極的對沖計劃,現貨石油價格敞口為同業中最大,預期今明兩年油價上升將帶動亞洲油企產生顯著的自由現金流,並上調2022及2023年平均EBITDA預測18%及19%,主要看好中石油(00857.HK)、中海油(00883.HK),以及印度ONGC、泰國PTT和PTTEP,同予「 買入」評級。 高盛將中石油2022至2023財年EBITDA預測上調19%及16%,以反映較高的油價預測,並將2021財年EBITDA預測下調2%,目標價由5.8元升至6.5元,並列入確信買入名單。高盛並上調中海油2022至2023財年EBITDA預測16%及23%,2021財年EBITDA預測下調2%,目標價由11.7元升至13元。 至於中石化(00386.HK),該行將2021財年核心 EBITDA預測下調6%,以反映去年第四季油價低於預期及天然氣進口損失高於預期;2022財年核心EBITDA預測亦下調3%,目標價由4.9元降至4.6元,評級「中性」。
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