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惠譽:目前寬鬆政策對內房融資無太顯著幫助
惠譽亞太區企業評級高級董事兼大中華房地產行業聯席主管Adrian Cheng表示,內地房企面臨大型流動性危機,預料今年內地房地產銷售額下跌10%至15%,指這屬於保守估計,料今年銷售均價下跌5%,當中一線城市跌幅較少,低線城市較跌幅更大,隨著房企減少買地,他們將在下半年面臨更大的土地儲備壓力。他表示,房地產前景正加速惡化,目前內地已實行的貨幣寬鬆政策,對房地產行業融資沒有太顯著幫助,房企需繼續以項目銷售、出售資產套現償債,又或作債務再融資。 企業評級董事總經理王穎預計,房地產行業持續下行風險會擴散到其他行業,若物業銷情持續低迷,會影響小型承建商表現,另外電器、傢俬業與新屋銷售的關聯度高,部分從事出口的銷售商面臨的風險或會較低,另外鋼鐵需求或會因基建需求上升,抵銷部分來自房地產行業的影響。她預計,互聯網行業今年仍然會面臨監管風險,尤其與金融科技相關、近期吸納很多資金的直播行業,對互聯網企業短期盈利有影響。 銀行評級高級董事胡月明表示,內地銀行對房地產行業貸款佔整體銀行系統貸款的7%,其中20%貸款來自按揭,認為若今年內地樓價下跌5%,風險仍屬可控,預期內地銀行今年貸款增長12%,相信有足夠空間抵禦房地產風險。 胡月明指,人民銀行若下調貸款市場報價利率(LPR)和已宣布的下調中期借貸便利(MLF),對銀行息差有負面影響,但下調存款準備金率(RRR)能減少銀行放貸成本,應能大致抵銷降息帶來的影響,預料今年銀行盈利穩定。她指出,目前按揭審批時間已由原本的兩至三月加快至只有一個月,目前中央對國企和地方政府融資工具以「去槓桿」為方針,預期銀行會審慎地對這些實體批出貸款。惠譽預計,中國今年增長4.8%。
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