豬糧比進入三級預警區間，豬肉股到底能不能買？
心心念念以為豬週期拐點到了的股民們，近期可能有些失望了。
去年12月中旬至今年1月上旬，豬肉股開啟了一段不長的上漲行情，讓不少投資者認為豬週期拐點已至。但近一個星期，不少豬肉股持續陰跌。1月11日至今，豬肉指數累跌6.31%，牧原股份累跌7.22%，新希望累跌11.68%，温氏股份累跌11.32%。
豬肉股股價近一個星期持續下跌，與豬肉價格走勢不無關係。
昨日，國家發改委監測數據顯示，今年1月10日至14日，全國平均豬糧比價為5.75：1，進入《完善政府豬肉儲備調節機制 做好豬肉市場保供穩價工作預案》設定的過度下跌三級預警區間。同時，國家發改委預計，短期豬肉價格或延續下滑走勢。
今日開盤，豬肉概念股們普遍為微跌狀態。豬價或延續下滑的消息對豬肉股的股價影響似乎並沒有那麼大。但豬企股價持續微跌，讓不少投資者疑惑，豬週期拐點到底何時到來？
據國家統計局，去年豬肉價格下降30.3%。豬肉下行週期，不少豬肉企業在去年經歷了較大規模的虧損。去年前三季度，牧原股份歸母淨利潤同比大跌58.53%，新希望歸母淨利潤虧損8.22億元，温氏股份虧損97.01億元。反映在股價上，這些豬肉股們也是一度腰斬。
而豬肉股在12月股價有所反彈，也是因為豬肉價格開始回升。但這一波反彈，卻並不意味着豬企產能完全出清，回到正常的供需關係狀態。
眾所周知，豬肉行業是典型的週期行業，其週期大致圍繞以下軌跡運行：豬肉價格上漲、能繁母豬存欄量增加、生豬供應增加、豬肉價格下跌、能繁母豬產能去化、生豬供應減少、豬肉價格新一輪上漲。
去年豬企持續虧損推動其主動去產能，即降低能繁母豬增量。2021年底，豬企去產能初見成效，加之春節前，因為製作臘肉香腸等豬肉製品的需求較為旺盛，出現了一波小的供需關係反轉。
不過，這並沒有阻礙到豬企繼續出清產能，因春節前的豬肉需求旺季並不可持續，春節後豬肉消費可能轉淡的預期，反而加速豬企出清產能，以降低此前的鉅額虧損。
通常往年上半年春節後為消費淡季，加上疫情下消費依舊較為疲軟，真正能判斷豬週期是否來臨的標誌還是能繁母豬產能是否到了最高值臨界點。
不少機構此前預測，國內豬企能繁母豬的產能去化臨界點將在第二季度。也就是説，在此之前，豬肉價格將繼續下跌。雖然股市是對未來市場的預期，但在現階段，豬肉股的短期股價表現大概率是震盪築底。
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