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《大行報告》高盛下調阿裏(09988.HK)目標價至192元 評級「買入」
高盛發表研究報告,預計阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)將繼續執行「以攻爲守」的增長戰略,通過淘寶及淘菜將活躍用戶擴展至低線城市,並建設更多個流量來源,包括淘寶直播等內容平臺。 管理層及架構調整後集團推出一系列新舉措,包括整合淘寶及天貓事業羣,以及建立三個專注於消費者體驗、商戶管理及服務的運營中心。高盛認爲,淘寶直播及淘寶逛逛海淘戰略定位持續改善,但同時宏觀擔憂依然存在。 高盛將2022財年第三季收入預測下調3%,預計將按年增長11%至2,451億元人民幣,核心商業調整後EBITA按年跌5%至700億元人民幣,非國際會計準則下每股盈利按年跌24%至16.84元人民幣。第三財季核心客戶管理收入增長料減慢至3%,考慮到集團將繼續增加對商家的補貼,因此預期經調整EBITA將按年跌26%至451億元人民幣,第三財季戰略投資虧損料達190億元人民幣。 該行預計,阿裏收入增長率將從2022財年第三及第四季的11%及6%,回升至2023財年的19%,並將2022至2024財年收入預測分別下調2%、4%及4%,當中計及內地零售收入預測下調3%至5%、阿裏雲收入減少2%至5%及宏觀經濟疲軟等因素。該行並降低2022至2024財年經調整EBITA預測1%、3%及4%,每股盈利預估下調1%、4%及4%。目標價相應由209元下調至每股192元,維持「買入」評級。
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