《大行報告》中金:中煤(01898.HK)去年第四季盈利下滑 看好公司未來成長性
中金發表報告指,中煤能源(01898.HK)發布2021年業績預告,淨利潤料介乎118至144億元人民幣(下同),按年增長99%至144%。業績預增主因公司煤炭售價上漲、參股企業投資收益增加等。
單計去年第四季,公司料虧損0.86元至利潤25億元,中位為12億元,按年及按季分別跌30%及71%。
展望今年,中金認為公司煤炭增量有望進一步釋放。公司大海則煤礦(年產 1,500萬噸)預計今年下半年進入聯合試運轉。平朔東露天礦、王家嶺礦等去年第四季獲批產能核增的煤礦也有望在今年貢獻增量。
另外,長協基準價上調亦利好公司煤炭售價。公司自產煤長協銷售比例不低於 80%。考慮到今年長協基準價有望由550元/噸,上調至 700元/噸左右,認為在市場煤價逐漸由去年歷史高位回歸合理的過程中,公司煤炭售價調幅仍有望保持相對穩定,相信量增價穩支撐公司盈利增厚,中長期現金牛屬性有望更加凸顯。
由於銷量及價格等假設調整,中金下調中煤去年A/H股每股盈利預測各10%,至1.01元及1.16元,並維持今年A股盈利基本不變,上調H股每股盈利預測9%至1.15元。該行又維持公司「跑贏行業」評級及H股目標價5.7港元不變。(ek/u)
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