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今天市場為何下跌?白酒消費税有多少影響?
格隆匯 01-13 21:26

作者 | 明野

數據支持 | 勾股大數據(www.gogudata.com)

大家好,我是明野!

今天市場大跌,主要原因是有一些紀要,傳遞出了一些偏悲觀的消息。主要是穩增長的措施和力度可能不如市場預期的強

之前市場是認為基建是“穩增長”的重要推動力量的,地產修復是不要給“穩增長”拖後退的,現在可能預期上大家要再觀察了。

另一個也是,茅台的大幅下跌,也讓人有點恐慌。關於茅台,有兩個傳聞,一個傳聞是説集團公司春節後宣佈成立新的銷售公司,這個可能性不大,畢竟明顯涉及到了關聯交易問題。另一傳聞是説針對茅台等少數高端酒的消費税文件已批。

消費税始終是白酒頭頂上的達摩克利斯之劍,之前有10月18日的大面積跌停,也是因為這個。那到底對利潤的衝擊多大?

茅台是唯一可以大概算得清銷量的公司。現在白酒消費税是20%,但因為是按出廠價的60%徵收,所以實際是12%,這個税在税金及附加里,比較一下,可以明顯看到白酒企業這個税非常重,許多企業1個點,但白酒普遍在15上下,原因就在此。

那麼如果提税,我覺得比較大的可能是恢復到20%,也就是要加8個點,那對茅台來説,税金及附加佔營收比例會達到22%左右。這樣算下來,如果茅台今年不提價,只有非標提了,預計全年淨利潤增3%左右,基本沒增,按今天收盤價1877.39算,對應今年歸母大概43.5倍。

但既然都加税了,飛天再不提價更加説不去,假設全年平均打款價提升了200,到1169,那麼預計今年淨利潤增長15%左右,那今天收盤價對應今年的估值是39倍。這是大概的基本面,可以看出,對茅台的影響不會太大,這個税早點出來對茅台投資者反而是好的,省得天天懸個心。對其他白酒的影響會大些,經濟下滑,加税,提價轉嫁不一定順利。

但是盤後也有新聞,説多方人士均沒有收到這樣的通知,所以不排除這是個誤殺。

機構的觀點是

1)徵收目的不明確,向少數幾家酒企所帶來的税收增量有限;

2)政策制定通常要考慮公平性,通常會針對行業整體而非某個公司,白酒歷史沒有隻針對幾個公司出台政策的情況。

認為近期的調整還有以下原因:1)最近市場情緒較為脆弱,部分資金贖回加大了這種脆弱性;2)天津河南西北等地疫情影響,擔心春節送禮等的消費需求問題。

但這些都是短期影響了,白酒嘛,作為長期投資,肯定是比較好的選擇。

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