《大行報告》摩通料內房股續跑輸大市 行業首選潤地、龍湖、中海外等
摩通發表研究報告預期,內房股將繼續跑輸大市,主要由於市場結構性下滑;銷售前景疲弱導致盈利前景下調;內房流動性問題短期難解;政策寬鬆不能刺激增長。
該行補充,雖然寬鬆政策短期或能帶來刺激,但隨着內房更多的債券違約、銷售疲弱(今年首季或按年跌逾40%)、今年3月將公佈的2021財年業績表現可能令人失望(盈利或下跌6%,以及削減派息),預期今年首季內房股股價疲弱,但如其後市場情況有所改善,相信股價將於第二及第三季出現復甦。
從歷史上看,該行指寬鬆政策需時6至11個月的時間令銷售反彈。行業中首選華潤置地(01109.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)及中海外(00688.HK)等(詳見另表)。
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