大和:維持建設銀行(0939.HK)買入評級 目標價下調至6.7港元
大和發表研究報吿表示,隨着中國政府正加大對經濟方面的財政支持措施,將刺激更多基礎設施項目推出,並推動建設銀行(0939.HK)的資產增長,同時中國政府亦正在為銀行提供更有針對性的貨幣支持,例如綠色貸款和普惠小微貸款,相信這將回報建行在這兩個領域的長期努力,該行維持建行“買入”評級,H股目標價則由7.4港元下調至6.7港元。
該行表示,儘管房地產行業的資產質量風險仍然是市場關注的問題,但認為鑑於房地產行業貸款的實際情況和目前的監管指引,該風險是可控的。銀行不是直接貸款給房地產開發商,而是傾向於貸款給由房地產開發商股權和其他債務融資所資助的特別項目公司。
該行續指,中國最近發佈了國內T-LAC(總損失吸收能力)規則,要求其G-SIBS(全球系統重要性銀行)的T-LAC在2025及2028年達到一定水平。雖然建行需要在2025年達到20%的T-LAC比率,但其相關的資本補充壓力有限。首先,由於總資本充足率可以代表T-LAC比率,建行的總資本充足率最高,因此在中國G-SIBS中壓力最小。
該行提及,估計在2022年至2024年期間,建行每年將需要600億元人民幣的額外淨融資,而該行可能會維持30%的常規派息率,而由於淨息差下行壓力,將其2021及2022年的撥備前利潤預測分別下調2%及3%,亦因資產質量前景好轉,上調淨利潤預測12%及20%。

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