瑞銀財富管理:料標指明年底挑戰5,100點
美國聯儲局加快縮減買債規模至每月300億美元,計劃明年3月中結束買債。瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資總監辦公室發表報告指出,相信聯儲局逐步將利率提高至中性水平,每季加息不超過一次(25點子)。但如果通脹沒有按照其預期般放緩,即跟目標通脹不一致,或勞動力市場有過熱的跡象,則可能迫使央行提速加息。
瑞銀指出,股票投資者可能需要幾天時間完全消化最新消息,但股市反應正面顯示聯儲局的公佈跟投資者的預期接近,增長股領漲或反映市場準備好央行釋出更「鷹」的信號,結果沒有,也就加強投資者入市信心。根據歷史數據,當聯儲局開展加息週期,股市仍能夠繼續走強,但漲幅取決於加息的速度(經濟的強度),估計標指明年底挑戰5,100點,另看好股票多於債券的觀點,偏好週期型價值及中盤股。
中國方面,該行認爲在防疫措施反覆實施、能源短缺未完全解決、行業監管未明朗化疊加高基數效應下,瑞銀預期經濟疲軟態勢將延續至明年第一季,當負面因素消退及政策寬鬆有效傳導,第二季起經濟有望提速反彈。另預期明年基礎設施投資增速將反彈至中高個位數,以彌補房地產投資疲軟的影響。
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