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《大行報告》瑞銀:中央經濟工作會議定調更主動財政政策 看好家電板塊
瑞銀發表報告指,上周末中央經濟工作會議為更主動的財政政策定調,加快財政開支,並加大降稅力度,該行認為整體政策制訂對明年中國市場屬正面,料帶挈A股明年春季走高。會議要求持續執行反壟斷規管及「房住不炒」,但論調轉向溫和,料對互聯網及房地產相關板塊漸進正面。減碳及推動技術創新仍然是明年主題,料支持再生能源及科技板塊。明年內地新增任務包括完全落實新股註冊制;促進生育回應人口老化;鼓勵跨國企業在華投資。 報告稱,會議釋出透過放寬基建投資及房地產政策,提供政策支持穩經濟的信號。該行仍維持政府重視控制槓桿及中至長期將經濟與基建投資及房地產脫鉤的目標。不過,要吸引投資者重回上述板塊料富挑戰性。該行反而看好家用電器板塊,作為房地產政策受惠者的替代品,料有長期增長潛力,並受惠於明年房屋建築改善,以及產品置換及提價。 瑞銀表示,中央經濟工作會議重申「共同富裕」需要透過合理財富分配「做大個餅」,料過程需時。這與該行看法相呼應,即政府強調維持經濟及家庭收入增長,以及支持就業,而不是重大激進財富分配。這或紓緩部分投資者對「共同富裕」或導致在華投資回報大跌的憂慮。
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