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國君：全面推廣註冊制，頭部券商更為受益
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究
註冊制改革致力於解決企業融資問題，增強資本市場活力。我國長期實行的發行制度是核准制，在核準制下，上市和退市的條件與手續都比較複雜，許多優質的新興企業都難以在國內上市，只能選擇境外上市，而一些業績劣後的上市公司退市過程則很長。註冊制的推廣旨在改善證券上市的生態，有助於提高直接融資比例，解決企業融資難問題；在註冊制下，市場對於證券的定價能力增強，資本市場優勝劣汰的作用得到發揮，資本市場活力和企業競爭力充分激發。
中央經濟工作會議提出全面推廣註冊制，標誌着註冊制從試點到全面推行的從容一躍。2018年，習近平總書記宣佈將在上交所內部設立科創板，並試點註冊制，標誌着註冊制試點拉開了序幕；此後註冊制試點不斷推進，2020年8月，創業板註冊制首發企業上市，創業板註冊制試點開始推進；2021年以來，註冊制改革進程加快，9月3日，北交所設立，實施註冊制，12月中央經濟工作會議提出全面推廣股票發行註冊制，標誌着註冊制從試點向全面推行從容邁進。
預計能夠滿足企業客户綜合需求的頭部券商更加受益於全面註冊制。全面註冊制有利於提高發行效率，提升直接融資佔比，為券商投行業務帶來業績增量。註冊制改革對券商的承銷能力、定價能力、銷售能力提出了更高的要求，頭部券商人才隊伍、項目經驗豐富，能夠更好地滿足企業客户的綜合需求。從營收貢獻角度來看，投行收入排名前四的券商均貢獻了12％的調整後營收，其中中信建投投行收入貢獻佔比21.49％，中金公司貢獻佔比19.06％；從投行業務淨收入的集中度角度來看，行業投行業務收入CR4從2019年的38.08％提升至21Q3的41.12％。因此我們判斷全面註冊制將進一步提升投行業務集中度，判斷未來投行龍頭將繼續受益於註冊制改革的紅利。
投資建議：隨着全面註冊制的落地推廣，企業客户服務水平高的頭部券商更具競爭優勢，推薦中信證券、中金公司（H）。
風險提示：監管政策執行不及預期，資本市場波動風險。
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