恆生投資管理料港股再下跌空間有限 明年表現料改善
恆生投資管理董事兼投資總監薛永輝表示,受惠環球央行持續「放水」,今年歐美等成熟股票市場表現跑贏,而中港股市則因內地寬鬆政策不多,及多個行業出臺監管措施令表現強差人意。不過,他指目前恆指估值已跌至市賬率約一倍水平,與以往亞洲金融風暴、環球金融海嘯及去年疫情初期時的下行週期底部估值相若,因此認爲恆指再下跌空間非常有限。
他提到,中國人民銀行昨日(6日)宣佈降準,經濟政策轉向寬鬆,明年估計內地仍有較多政策放鬆空間,可能會再降準及減息,將有利中港股市表現改善。因A股更直接受惠政策,表現料會優於港股。
薛永輝認爲,明年板塊及股份選擇更爲重要,看好得益於中國長遠結構性增長及有政策扶持的板塊,包括內循環的內需股、高科技產業及環境保護政策。
至於美國股市明年預期將受制於聯儲局縮減買債規模行動,他相信此舉將降低市場流動性,加上預料企業回購規模將減少,以及通脹壓力高企下的加息風險,對美股明年走勢看法維持中性。
對於近期中概股沽壓沉重,他稱美國早已提出要監管在當地上市的中資股的審計,雖然短期面對沽壓,但相信往後市場會消化。長期而言,中概股在美退市及回港上市有利港股成交額增加,對香港投資市場會有幫助。
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