《大行報告》花旗下調本港今年GDP增長預測至6.6% 維持明年增長預測3.8%
花旗發表報告,下調本港今年GDP增長預測至6.6%,明年增長預測則維持3.8%。報告指,香港經濟和消費可能在明年繼續穩步復甦,但基數效應會降低年度增長。同時預計消費、旅遊和整體服務業的就業情況改善,到明年第二季會有更有明顯的恢復。
中港通關方面,花旗料在臨近明年黃金週假期和年中時,配額可能會擴大,允許休閒旅遊。爲減低香港可能成爲內地疫情進口風險,該行預計香港將實施更嚴格的本地疫情控制,包括詳細的接觸者追蹤、打第三針加強針疫苗、擴大疫苗接種範圍以及設立與疫苗接種相關的活動區。
花旗指,即使考慮到香港作爲國際金融中心的需要,與內地往來仍是港府首要任務,因此只有當新的科學發現證明對變種病毒的必要追蹤天數減少、香港有新的有效新冠藥物以及本地的疫苗接種進展更好時,纔可能放寬對進入香港的國際旅行者的疫情防控要求。
另外,花旗指,本港銀行系統的流動性充裕,即使美聯儲縮表和利率正常化,但鑑於經濟復甦、強勁的融資活動和跨境金融發展的擴張,預計香港在明年仍將是一個有吸引力的資金目的地。
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