招證12月銀行策略：關注年底估值切換
本文來自：志明看金融 ，作者：廖志明
三季報業績靚麗，明年業績有望穩健增長。A股上市銀行整體3Q21營收增速7.7%，較1H21的5.9%上升1.8個百分點。A股上市銀行整體3Q21歸母淨利潤增速13.6%，較1H21提升0.6個百分點，盈利增速改善主要來自資產質量穩中向好之下的信用成本下降。四季度以來，穩信用加碼，房地產信貸小幅放鬆，經濟託底力度提升，我們預計未來一年社融增速將小幅回升，2022年經濟有望企穩。展望明年，銀行息差雖小幅承壓但有望保持相對平穩，資產質量延續穩中向好，我們預計2022年A股上市銀行整體盈利增速6%左右，為2015年以來較高水平。
年底估值切換行情值得期待。覆盤2006-2021年中信銀行指數，12月的月度平均漲幅為5.9%，為12個月中平均漲幅最高的月份。儘管經濟下行壓力仍較大，但悲觀預期已經反映在銀行股估值之中。隨着政策託底經濟力度增大，過度悲觀的預期有望證偽。當前，銀行板塊估值處於歷史低位，基本面穩中向好，盈利增速有望保持近五年較好水平。疊加年底估值切換，我們認為，銀行板塊或迎來估值小幅修復，可以更樂觀些。
個股仍應聚焦優質銀行。我們認為，銀行股投資應聚焦優質銀行，特別是財富管理銀行。當前，我們主推估值較低或處於近期低位的優質銀行-寧波、江蘇、南京、常熟、興業、平安銀行等。
12月金股-寧波銀行：寧波銀行為城商行標杆，深耕長三角的高成長性銀行，資產質量持續保持優異，財富管理快速發展，ROE領跑上市銀行。寧波銀行3Q21歸母淨利潤增速達26.9%，較1H21提升5.6個百分點；營收增速為 28.5%，較1H21上升3.3個百分點，營收和歸母淨利潤皆保持高增速。3Q21加權平均ROE達17.2%，領跑上市銀行。財富管理的發展有望驅動輕資本轉型，降低對再融資的依賴。1月23日寧波銀行發佈配股預案，擬募集資金不超過120億元，目前已落地。我們認為，配股對股價的影響吿一段落，前幾個月估值明顯回落，近期股價雖已回升，但性價比仍然凸顯。
12月金股-江蘇銀行：業績靚麗的江浙城商行。江蘇銀行短期有業績，長期有看點。好的經營區域疊加市佔率優勢，業績釋放疊加資產質量改善，江蘇銀行有望脱穎而出。江蘇銀行地處江蘇，輻射長三角、珠三角等，區域優勢顯著。作為頭部城商行，3Q21營收增速達24.7%，歸母淨利潤增速達30.5%，均較1H21提升且領跑上市銀行，盈利增速為A股上市銀行首位。近幾年，資產質量改善顯著。21Q3不良貸款率為1.12%，為近六年來最低。21Q3關注貸款率為1.27%，21Q3逾期率為1.17%，資產質量優異。隨着零售轉型、財富管理業務發展帶動中收提升，有望躋身頭部上市銀行。前期股價回落明顯，當前估值僅0.60倍PB（lf），性價比凸顯。
風險提示：金融讓利及信貸需求走弱，息差收窄；經濟下行壓力加大，資產質量惡化等。
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