中信證券:“修例”如期落地,行業步入合法監管時代
本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:李鑫、康達、肖昊、郭韻
“修例”賦予中煙監管職責,電子煙行業步入“有法可依”的合法監管時代。“修例”後霧化品類“完全禁止”風險解除,但“專賣專營”風險猶存,我們判斷中煙壟斷經營批發環節的中性情形以及中煙僅主導監管&徵税、民企參與各環節經營的樂觀情形為大概率監管方向,後續在中煙主導下監管細節有望陸續出台。21Q3霧化煙海內外市場雙觸底,2022年邊際向好。HNB國內市場靜待綻放,潛在配套空間巨大。霧化及HNB技術龍頭望憑藉技術迭代進一步與競爭對手拉開差距。維持新型煙草行業“強於大市”評級。
國內監管:“修例”如期落地,中煙主導後續監管
11月26日,國務院發佈關於修改《中華人民共和國煙草專賣法實施條例》(“修例”)的決定,“修例”使電子煙首次“有法可依”,我們判斷中煙將主導後續監管。市場討論的國標內容初稿符合預期,但出台進度大幅慢於預期,有望於2022年正式發佈。“證照分離”為中煙落實國務院改革要求,與新型煙草監管關係不大。“修例”後霧化品類“完全禁止”風險解除,但“專賣專營”風險猶存。調整國內政策三情形分析框架:嚴格專賣管理、全產業鏈壟斷經營為較小概率的極端情形;壟斷經營批發環節為大概率的中性情形;中煙僅主導監管、徵税,民企參與經營,行業限速有序發展為大概率的樂觀情形。
霧化跟蹤:海內外雙觸底,2022邊際向好
行業基本面與海內外監管進程發生共振,Q3海內外市場增速均探底。展望21Q4及2022年:PMTA逐步落地兑現,美國市場前景逐步明朗,行業增速有望回升;國內市場經營底部已現,龍頭品牌悦刻積極變革渠道、市佔率穩中有升,重拾季度環比增長可期。我們預期2022年海外市場及國內市場均有望實現20%~30%理性增長。
HNB跟蹤:國內市場靜待綻放,潛在配套空間巨大
HNB屬煙草專賣品,國內市場開放仍需等待。HNB在國內市場開放和滲透提升有望帶來煙用香精、薄片及煙具巨大潛在需求,若國內HNB滲透率達5%~50%,推算煙用香精用量有望增長25%~250%、新型煙草薄片出廠口徑市場規模可達53億~529億元、HNB煙具出廠口徑市場規模可達約39億~388億元。
技術迭代:霧化及HNB技術龍頭持續創新引領
IQOS ILUMA升級為第二代SMARTCORE電磁感應加熱技術,適配TEREA全新品牌專用煙彈,完美解決了第一代刀片式加熱技術中存在的加熱片易折斷、易殘留焦油及殘渣、煙彈不易拔出等痛點,在第一代加熱技術保持領先地位的情況下預計將進一步拉開與競爭對手的差距。預計思摩爾新一代陶瓷霧化技術也將於12月發佈,有望繼續引領霧化技術創新、鞏固全球領先地位。
風險因素
政策嚴厲程度超預期;政策推進力度不達預期;品牌端競爭加劇;霧化技術競爭及迭代加劇。
投資策略
國內市場監管邁出里程碑式第一步,美國PMTA走上正軌,ODM企業面臨的監管風險較為可控,且有望通過新技術迭代鞏固領先地位,隨着2022年海內外市場如預期邊際向好估值有望走出底部,首推思摩爾國際。HNB市場潛在配套空間巨大,但政策開放時點還需等待,建議關注華寶國際、華寶股份、勁嘉股份等。維持新型煙草行業“強於大市”評級。
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