郭家耀: 內房危機憂慮紓緩 港股料24,500至25,500上落
安里資產管理董事總經理郭家耀稱,美股上周五(12日)走勢繼續向好,市場憧憬企業盈利前景亮麗,三大指數均錄得升幅收市。美元走勢回軟,美國十年期債息回升至1.57厘水平,金價溫和向好,油價反覆受壓。港股預託證券大致向上,預料大市早段跟隨外圍高開。內地股市上周五向好,滬綜指低開高走,收市上升0.1%,滬深兩市成交額繼續活躍。
港股連日反彈,指數企穩25,000點以上水平。投資者對內房債務危機憂慮紓緩,加上憧憬新經濟股季績表現理想,利好大市走勢,預料指數短期維持於24,500至25,500點水平上落。
另內地官媒《經濟日報》日前發文表示,國內奶業發展存在人均乳製品消費水平低、城鄉之間及城鄉內部不同人群消費水平差距大的問題,乳製品價格偏高在一定程度上抑制了乳製品消費需求增長,因此國內奶業發展的一個重要任務,仍是面向廣大消費者提供價格親民、營養又安全的優質乳製品,而優質並不意味高價格與高端化。蒙牛(02319.HK)回應表示,企業既要滿足消費升級需求,又要滿足最基礎消費需求,對於蒙牛供應鏈體系係一個大挑戰。考驗的是企業的供應能力、數字化物流、排產等各方面的能力。要想保障巨大的基礎產品需求,就要把企業自己的基礎做大,在合理的成本下,不斷提升品質和效率。另一個挑戰來自於市場上層出不窮的新興公司,新興公司與消費者之間不斷縮短的距離,讓蒙牛的市場營銷、與消費者溝通的方式面臨挑戰。第三個行業挑戰便是可持續發展,特別是應對氣候變化和環境保護的挑戰。對此,用科技的手段解決排放問題目前已有探索,比如通過飼草的改變降低牛的排放,又如通過可穿戴設備吸收一部分甲烷和二氧化碳等。市場觀望政策會否影響蒙牛在產品價格上的定價權,從而對公司估值構成壓力。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,沒持有上述股份)~
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