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《大行報告》美銀證券:市場憧憬內房政策放鬆升溫 但短期難全面扭轉
美銀證券發表研究報告指出,市場憧憬內房政策寬鬆升溫,包括有報道指部分發展商或會發行銀行間債券,顯示潛在很大的融資渠道;國企發展商在「三條紅線」融資規則下計算槓桿指標時,要求監管機構免除併購中承擔的債務,暗示他們可從陷入困境的發展商手中購買資產;有聲音估計監管機構已要求銀行清理五個多月前提交的積壓抵押貸款申請,惟報道指主要城市的主要銀行尚未收到有關指導,並且不存在有關的積壓;有傳瀋陽監管部門與發展商召開會議,討論可能放寬購房和轉售限制。 該行指出,雖然能看到更多的內房政策改善,但預期短期內不會出現180度的轉變,而10月份抵押貸款寬鬆政策還不夠,部分原因是地方政府對預售存款的更嚴格規定,吸收額外的流動性,以及私人債券在評級下調時可行使的看跌期權,導致某些發展商爭奪流動性的情況仍然存在。因此,可能需要更多的政策寬鬆,如專門的融資渠道,以降低高居不下的離岸債券孳息率。 此外,該行預期是次寬鬆內房政策將使更多發展商受惠,繼續看好國企中的中國海外發展(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)和萬科(02202.HK)等優質品牌,以及非國企中的龍湖(00960.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)和新城發展(01030.HK)。並維持碧桂園(02007.HK)、富力地產(02777.HK)和雅居樂(03383.HK)的「跑輸大市」評級。
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