《大行報告》中金降海底撈(06862.HK)目標價至23.05元 評級「跑贏行業」
中金發表報告,在盈利調整和海底撈(06862.HK)關閉表現不佳的門店做出正確的商業決策,憑藉其餐飲業內較強的管理能力,其調整的進展和效果值得觀察和期待,下調目標價27%至23.05港元,維持「跑贏行業」評級。 但在短期失去門店擴張帶來的增長動力的情況下,如果未能扭轉局面,翻檯率改善低於預期,則可能存在風險。
中金指,由於海底撈自去年起過快擴張,出現部分門店選址失誤,優秀店經理數量不足,組織架構變革沒有很好適應公司規模等挑戰。 該行預計下半年翻檯率仍受壓,預計7月整體翻檯率約3至3.5,8月翻檯率低於7月,9月翻檯率按月小幅上升但仍低於7月。
對於海底撈今年關閉約300家門店,未來收縮擴張計劃。中金指,關閉的300家店主要為近1至2年新開門店,從門店商圈成熟度,客流,周邊門店密度,單店財務數據等角度進行篩選,部分關停門店翻檯率低於2。 因此認為關停經營表現不佳門店有助於及時止損,或能提升周邊門店客流,不過可能在短期帶來一定的關店費用。
中金考慮到下半年的疫情反覆及關店帶來的一次性費用,下調2021年盈利預測15.8億元至倒退3億元,考慮到未來收縮門店擴張計劃及疫情的不確定性,下調2022年盈利預測41%至19億元。
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