瑞銀:內地出口或進一步放緩
10月內地美元計出口按年增27.1%,增速由9月的28.1%放緩。瑞銀投資銀行研究部北亞地區經濟師鄧維慎表示,儘管出口增速略有放緩,10月出口表現再次超預期,而去年基數較低是推高進口增速的重要因素。
鄧維慎指出,中國對歐盟出口有所加快,部分抵銷了對美出口放緩,10月手機出口大幅減速,根據歷史表現,認爲本輪智能手機出口反彈或已見頂,未來幾個月可能進一步走弱,一般消費品和防疫相關產品出口均有所提速,部分或來自低基數的支持。
他續稱,美國ISM指數的新訂單指數、歐盟PMI的新訂單指數等關鍵外需指標全面走弱,隨着發達經濟體繼續從商品消費轉向服務消費,競爭對手陸續復產復工,手機、防疫產品等關鍵產品出口走弱,預計整體出口面臨下行壓力將進一步加劇,不過10月出口依然較強,未來其增速放緩可能也會比較溫和。
他補充,中國外匯儲備增加210億美元至3.218萬億美元,其中貿易順差擴大拉動整體外匯儲備規模上升,而其他因素可能造成了部分估值損失,儘管離岸債券市場出現波動,但估計10月外資流入規模可能大致企穩,人民幣對美元即期匯率升破6.4,年初至今貿易加權的人民幣匯率升值超過6%,認爲短期人民幣匯率進一步大幅升值的空間不大。
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