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中信证券:预计2022年下半年全球疫情或可实现常态化,通胀或可逐步回落到疫情前较为温和的水平
格隆汇10月27日丨中信证券指出,当前推升全球通胀的主要因素已经从需求增长切换为供应链瓶颈,通过对全球产能不足、运输能力受挫以及供应链下游库存低位等供应链问题的分析,我们认为劳动力短缺是制约当前全球供应链修复的关键所在。从疫情角度看,明年下半年全球疫苗接种率或将有较大提升,各国间的差异也将有所收敛。预计2022年下半年全球疫情或可实现常态化,届时劳动力市场缺口将减小,进而推动供应链得到明显改善,同时通胀或可逐步回落到疫情前较为温和的水平。
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