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《大行報告》大和引述中燃(00384.HK)管理層確認聯營屬瀋陽氣爆小區營運商 料燃氣股未屆「撈底」切入點
昨日(21日)瀋陽市和平區太原街南七馬路路口發生燃氣爆燃事故。據瀋陽發佈當日17時許消息,事故造成4人死亡;3人重傷、傷情平穩,44人輕傷。大和發表報告,引述中國燃氣(00384.HK)管理層確認聯營「瀋陽燃氣」是事發小區城市燃氣營運商。中國燃氣持有瀋陽瀋西46%權益,後者持有瀋陽燃氣70%權益。 中燃管理層稱,並無直接參與瀋陽燃氣營運。不過,瀋陽燃氣CEO董利梅亦是中國燃氣瀋陽全資附屬的法定代表人,意味中燃有參與瀋陽燃氣。該行稱,明白到爆燃原因及事故中瀋陽燃氣相關責任有待釐清,但認爲投資者撤出中燃屬合理,因其直接牽涉6月時十堰氣爆致命事故,對其併購前景構成負面影響,特別是與混改有關的標的。 報告稱,確認其他城市燃氣營運商,如新奧(02688.HK)、潤燃(01193.HK)、崑崙能源(00135.HK)及港華燃氣(01083.HK)不牽涉瀋陽事故,其股價不應受負面影響。反之,注重ESG及安全的行業領導如新奧及港華燃氣,或受惠於併購增加,因在收緊安全標準下小型營運商退出市場,以及混改更加重視安全表現。 大和表示,山東發改委本週發行「高進高出」液化天然氣(LNG)政策,容許城市燃氣營運商將LNG成本完全轉嫁予非住宅板塊,並料其他沿海省份將會跟隨。有關政府對城市燃氣營運商屬正面,因在LNG成本上升下單位毛利面對壓力,特別是沿海敞口較大及依賴LNG企業如潤燃。該行料城市燃氣營運商在住宅板塊將面對單位毛利擠壓,特別是今明兩年因拉尼娜現象冬季料較寒冷。 報告確認對內地城市燃氣營運商正面長遠看法,但相信現時不是良好「撈底」切入點,因較寒冷冬季或帶來重大潛在毛利擠壓。相關投資評級及目標價見另表。
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