市場風險依舊，爲何美股恐慌指數仍然接近18個月低點？
儘管全球疫情仍在肆虐，美聯儲決策者即將削減刺激計劃，能源價格不斷飆升，債券遭遇拋售，但是，美股恐慌指數卻依然接近18個月以來的低點。
儘管全球疫情仍在肆虐，美聯儲決策者即將削減刺激計劃，能源價格不斷飆升，債券遭遇拋售，但是，美股恐慌指數卻依然接近18個月以來的低點。
衡量標普500指數預期波動的芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)在過去一個月一直呈下降趨勢，週二跌至15.7，接近去年2月以來的最低水平。根據相關機構1990年彙編的數據顯示，該指數目前遠低於約19.5的歷史平均水平。
另外，從VIX指數和衡量美國國債波動率的MOVE指數的比率中可以看出，股市和債市之間的走勢正出現分歧。在本週，這一比率飆升至2020年2月以來的最高水平。
對此，Susquehanna International Group衍生品策略師Chris Murphy表示，VIX指數之所以如此低迷，可能存在四個原因：
(1)到目前爲止，美國企業公佈的季報依然積極，財報季往往會降低相關性和整體波動性;
(2)投資者可能會對美聯儲「不可避免」的縮減購債感到越來越放心，並開始關注股市在加息週期的早期階段表現良好的歷史趨勢;
(3)由於缺乏有吸引力的替代選擇以及處於高位的現金水平，投資者可能會預期增加股票配置;
(4)標普500指數在過去兩週的大部分時間內都低於50日移動均線，這是該指數從新冠疫情低點反彈以來持續時間最長的一次。
另外，Murphy還指出：「較低的隱含波動率水平和積極的價格動能可能爲大宗商品交易顧問和以波動性爲目標的基金買入更多股票打開大門。」
據瞭解，自2020年2月下旬的疫情爆發以來，VIX指數不斷躍升，在隨後的12個月內平均水平約爲30，反映了疫情帶來的不確定性。但在後來，疫苗的研發和經濟重新開放的跡象使其下降，自3月份以來，平均水平一直維持在19左右。另外，衡量VIX期權隱含波動率的指標VVIX週二收於4月以來的最低水平。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
