瑞銀汪濤:下調中國全年GDP預測至7.6%
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤預計,內地全年GDP增速由8.2%放緩至7.6%,明年實際GDP增長5.6%。
她指,9月工業生產和房地產活動走弱,拖累中國第三季GDP增速放緩。儘管近期房地產相關信貸已有邊際放鬆跡象,今年第四季到明年初房地產銷售和新開工仍可能進一步下跌。而內地缺電的情況有望改善、基建投資可能溫和反彈,應能支撐第四季實際GDP按季折年增長率反彈至4%以上,但按年增速可能會進一步由4%放緩至2.7%。
汪濤預計,明年首季,缺電的影響可能明顯消退、宏觀政策有望進一步放鬆,應能抵銷消費和房地產活動走弱帶來的拖累,不過經濟按季增長動能可能要到明年3月以後纔會更明顯地反彈,料2022年全年實際GDP增長5.6%。
另外,考慮到經濟增長面臨的下行壓力加劇,她預計財政政策會進一步放鬆,例如加快地方政府債券發行、加快地方基建項目審批、小幅放鬆對地方政府融資平臺融資的管控等,其影響可能在今年四季度到明年年初更爲明顯。
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