阿根廷:下一輪鹽湖鋰資源開發的焦點
本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:李超、拜俊飛、敖翀
阿根廷擁有全球數量最多、開發潛力最大的鹽湖鋰資源項目。我們預計2021-2022年將成為中國企業佈局阿根廷鹽湖鋰資源的高峯期。中國企業的參與有望推動先進的鹽湖提鋰技術在阿根廷的推廣,推動行業變革。推薦贛鋒鋰業、盛新鋰能和藍曉科技,建議關注紫金礦業、西藏珠峯和久吾高科。
阿根廷擁有全球數量最多的鹽湖鋰資源項目,但開發程度較低
阿根廷的鹽湖資源主要集中在薩爾塔省、胡胡伊省和卡塔馬卡省的普納高原地區,也即全球聞名的“鋰三角”地帶。阿根廷鹽湖鋰項目數量超過60個,其中已處於領先開發階段的項目有23個,含建成項目2個,在建項目2個,完成經濟評估或可研的項目12個,完成深度勘探的項目7個,另外還有超過40個處於早期勘探階段的項目,是全球鋰鹽湖項目分佈最密集,未來開發前景最大的地區。
阿根廷已規劃的鹽湖提鋰產能超過50萬噸
阿根廷已經入開發階段的23個鹽湖項目已探獲的資源量(測定的+指示的+推斷的)超過1.2億噸LCE,考慮到還有大量項目處於早期勘探階段,未來阿根廷鹽湖資源規模有望繼續擴大。23個進入開發階段的項目已規劃產能達到50.6萬噸LCE,其中已經明確投產時間並啟動建設的產能約為21萬噸,但多數項目的投產時間晚於2023年。阿根廷的鹽湖提鋰項目預計將成為未來全球鋰供應的重要增量。
阿根廷鹽湖提鋰成本處於全球最低水平,但投資強度制約了產能擴張
阿根廷鹽湖提鋰項目的平均運營成本約為3500美元/噸,處於全球鋰產品生產成本的最低水平。但阿根廷鹽湖資源的開發投資強度較高,已披露項目每萬噸碳酸鋰的投資額達到1.77億美元,摺合人民幣超過11億元,明顯高於硬巖鋰礦和中國鋰鹽廠的投資強度,這也成為制約阿根廷鹽湖鋰資源開發的重要因素。
中國企業加速佈局阿根廷鹽湖鋰資源,有望帶來提鋰技術變革
隨着鋰價再次快速上漲以及市場對今後鋰需求的樂觀預期,我們預計2021-2022年將成為中國企業佈局阿根廷鹽湖鋰資源的高峯期。中國鹽湖提鋰行業經過多年發展,開發出吸附法、萃取法、膜法等多種新型提鋰工藝。國內先進的提鋰技術有望在阿根廷加速推廣,從而顯著提升南美鹽湖項目的資源收率、縮短建設和生產週期,降低生產成本,減少碳排放和淡水消耗,為鹽湖提鋰行業帶來深刻變革。
風險因素:鋰價下跌的風險;鹽湖提鋰項目建設不及預期的風險;中國企業海外投資的政策風險和項目運營風險。
投資策略:阿根廷擁有全球數量最多的鋰鹽湖資源項目,資源開發前景巨大。2021年以來中國企業加速阿根廷鹽湖鋰資源佈局。阿根廷鹽湖項目不僅成為贛鋒鋰業等國內鋰生產商的資源保障和產能增量,也成為紫金礦業等企業完善產業鏈佈局和業務轉型的重要抓手。建議關注佈局南美鹽湖資源項目的企業和受益於技術推廣的鹽湖提鋰工藝提供商。推薦贛鋒鋰業、盛新鋰能和藍曉科技,建議關注紫金礦業、西藏珠峯和久吾高科。
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