植耀輝: 港股第三季表現失色 航運股續看好
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,不經不覺已踏入第三季尾聲,截至昨日(28日)為止,港股第三季表現相當麻麻,恆指、國指及科指分別累跌15%、18.2%及23.6%。恆指成份股中只得8隻錄得升幅,國指則只得6隻,科指更全數下跌。雖然第三季跌幅不少,但第四季要有好表現亦非易事,恆大(03333.HK)事件至今仍未明朗,內地限電限產措施令投資者擔心經濟增幅或會受到影響;另一方面,監管陰霾繼續困擾投資氣氛,《博彩法》諮詢結果又會左右濠賭股命運(銀娛(00027.HK)及金沙(01928.HK)為第三季表現最差恆指成份股),加上美國聯儲局收水在即及環球疫情狀況,港股要收復年內失地頗有難度,投資者還是待相關變數明朗化後再出手也未遲。
市況如斯「難玩」,亦要跟大家談談個別板塊及個股。航運股是筆者今年其中一個看好板塊,惟周一相關板塊急挫,平均跌幅達到一成;昨日個別見有反彈,但幅度亦相當有限。坊間對急跌有不少解讀,絕大部分認為內地限電限產將影響內地出口,對航運股帶來負面影響。當然有關措施對經濟以至各行各業之影響仍有待觀察,不過真正原因卻可能是「一櫃難求」局面有望得到紓緩。皆因內地貨櫃之產能已由月產20萬提升至50萬,同時庫存亦已超過40萬,令新貨櫃供應得到保障。根據內地交通運輸部之消息,目前除個別航運公司因船期延誤、天氣、疫情防控等影響而令個別港口可能出現臨時性少量空箱短缺外,空貨櫃短缺情況已得到緩解,亦令投資者關注運費會否因此而回落。
儘管如此,但筆者仍為運費短期仍難出現顯著回落,畢竟全球運力依然緊張,何況即使有所回調,惟運費現時仍處於極高水平,航運公司下半年業績仍會相當強勁。當然未來兩三個星期之集裝箱指數(包括SCFI及CCFI)將會帶來更多啟示,宜多加留意。但在此之前,筆者仍會繼續看好並持有相關股份。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有東方海外股份)
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港股再度考驗24,000關口支持
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(28日)美股三大指數全線下跌,跌幅達2%-3%,納指表現最差。共和黨反對下,美國未有正式批准撥款及提高債務上限,10年期美債孳息進一步升至1.56厘,再創3個月新高,進一步加深股市回吐壓力,道指盤中挫600點,納指以接近低位收市,金龍中國指數挫3%。
多間大行相繼下調中國經濟預測,花旗下調內地明年經濟增長,由預測的5.5%下調至4.9%,留意短期中央會否推出刺激政策。港股今日(29日)起暫停北水流入,不過中概股於昨晚捱沽,加上今日恆大(03333.HK)將再度面臨美元債到期利息兌付考驗,大市將繼續考驗24,000關口支持。
從技術走勢上,恆指上周高位已觸及黃金反彈比率0.382即24828點水準,進一步反彈目標為25160,不過14RSI亦長期處於50水準以下,顯示反彈力度偏弱,10天線持續下移的情況下恆指需以守住24000關口為首要目標。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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