高盛:重申對新奧能源(2688.HK)和中燃氣(0384.HK)的“買入”評級
高盛發表報吿,對投資者關注的問題表述了看法,包括天然氣成本上升對分銷商利潤率的影響,以及中國房地產開發商去槓桿化壓力帶來潛在風險等。
高盛指,75%至90%的分銷商通常從國有企業購買大部分的天然氣,並從現貨液化天然氣市場購買5%至15%的天然氣。鑑於國有企業的天然氣銷售價格波動越來越大,以及進入冬季的現貨液化天然氣價格居高不下,如果部分上游成本增長不能完全轉嫁,預計分銷商下半年的美元利潤率將較上半年下降4%。
高盛又指,雖然天然氣分銷商的新連接量部分是由舊公寓的連接驅動,但總連接的增長仍與新公寓竣工比例有關係。該行房地產團隊將2021年的新房開工率預測由-1%下調至-7%,並將2022年預測下調至-15%,預計房地產開發商的信貸緊縮將在未來幾年內持續。雖然房屋竣工可能在短期內保持強勁,以反映過去2至3年的房屋預售情況,但2021年至2022年新開工的預期疲軟將可能轉化為2023至2024年的房屋竣工疲軟,因此將分銷商2023至2024年的連接量數目預測減少5%至10%,以反映住房竣工的潛在疲軟。
個股方面,高盛重申對新奧能源(2688.HK)和中燃氣(0384.HK)的“買入”評級,目標價分別由170港元及30港元下調至163港元及29港元。潤燃(1193.HK)則維持“賣出”評級,目標價由48港元下調至46港元,因盈利增長比同行慢,且市盈率接近行業歷史平均水平,反映風險回報不如同行,同時較易受到邊際利潤率和天然氣銷售量波動的影響,因為天然氣銷售的利潤份額較高。
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