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《大行報告》里昂料恆大會經歷漫長及痛苦重組過程 指龍湖在非國企內房股中最安全
里昂發表報告表示,料內地房地產市場將於未來12至18個月進入下行週期,指大多數參與者均擔心中國恆大(03333.HK)流動性問題的溢出效應,從而令房地產活動放緩。該行料內房行業將不可避免地面臨銷售額下降。而該行進行壓力測試的分析中,相信其所涵蓋的非國有企業開發商均將能夠解決短期現金流困難。 該行指,如果整體市場仍然低迷,認為內地推寬鬆政策是可以的,此可能會催化行業市盈率的估值,該行業預測今年市盈率目前處於3.5倍的歷史低位。從風險回報的角度來看,該行更喜歡華潤置地(01109.HK)和中國海外(00688.HK)等國企,料龍湖集團(00960.HK)在所有非國企內房股中最具安全性。 里昂指,中國恆大的流動性問題將引發內房市場低迷,鑑於恆大多元化業務的複雜性,該行預計恆大將不得不經歷一個漫長及痛苦的重組過程,料開發商和潛在購房者都將變得保守,導致房地產銷售、土地銷售和新開工量大幅下降,料2022年全國房地產銷售按年下降8%。 該行指,與非國企內房發展商相比,仍偏愛國企內房商,因料行業仍將面臨壓力,除非政策方向發生一些變化(從緊縮到寬鬆)。該行決定下調富力地產(02777.HK)評級,由「買入」至「跑輸大市」,將目標價由15.4元降至5元,將碧桂園(02007.HK)評級從「買入」降至「跑輸大市」,將目標價由10.8元降至7.8元;該行亦調低對美的置業(03990.HK)評級,從「買入」降至「跑贏大市」評級,將目標價由25.9元降至13.4元。 里昂指仍看好國企開發商,認為華潤置地(01109.HK)具彈性租金收入;中國海外宏洋(00081.HK)具較高收入保障。該行亦認為龍湖集團是所有非國有企業中最安全的公司。該行普遍下調對內房股的目標價。
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