You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》大摩料內房板塊違約增加惟風險可控 正邁向政策放寬拐點 10月中下旬或再降準50點子
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,指過去兩個月,中國金融市場衝擊不斷,首先是廣泛監管重訂,隨後是市場關注內房面對短期融資壓力。有關舉措的政策目標首先是確保社會穩定,其次是透過減少收入差距及處理經濟不平衡及過剩,以維持經濟可持續增長。不過,這亦引起市場對潛在系統風險升溫及增長加速放緩的憂慮。 大摩稱,投資者關注點由科技轉至內房板塊,主要面對兩大風險。首先,內房被要求遵守去年8月頒佈的「三條紅線」要求。現在所經歷的是監管行動的直接影響,旨在減少指標相關係統風險,遏止內房行業過度借貸。此外,內地物業需求過去兩個月下滑,上半年物業借貸限額預取壓抑了物業銷售,對內房企業帶來進一步困難。 報告稱,絕大部分內房正邁向符合「三條紅線」要求,但一些內房面對達標壓力。該行研究團隊估算內房行業總債務敞口達18.4萬億元人民幣,與年度銷售相若。這意味總槓桿可控,去槓桿過程亦然。 大摩表示,縱使如此,去槓桿壓力意味內房板塊違約將增加。按過去經驗,政策制訂者有機制去處理系統風險。舉例,違約內房的債務重組將在控股公司層面進行,而旗下經營實體經營如常,建築項目如期開展。信貸委員會將聯同金融監管機構代表、央行及地方政府監督過程。 至於銀行系統方面,該行稱,內銀物業風險敞口料可控。發展(物業)貸款佔內銀總貸款敞口的6.9%,個別發展商貸款結餘佔內銀總貸款敞口0.3%或以下。上半年不良貸款生成亦跌至多年低位。此外,過去三年與P2P消費者貸款及影子銀行信貸相關風險已大致受限制。因此,該行團隊認爲,內地銀行系統今年有充足空間處理物業板塊風險。另全球投資者對內房的敞口亦相對較小,意味潛在全球系統風險料有限。 大摩預期,內房重組過程及對金融系統的即時溢出效應有序,惟留意對更廣泛經濟的潛在衝擊。即使庫存水平低企,短期物業動工減少或對經濟帶來下行壓力。 報告稱,內地物業及相關板塊貢獻中國GDP達15%,該行首席中國經濟學家Robin Xing估算,內地住宅物業市場活動每下滑10個百分點,將對GDP增長帶來1個百分點的影響。進一步溢出效應或帶來負面財富效應,減少私人消費,物業投資減少或壓抑其上遊製造行業的固產投,而對內房行業就業的影響或進一步壓抑消費。 該行稱,內地限產以節能減排的同時,內房行業的溢出效應,對內地經濟進一步添壓。由於現時防疫相關限制,內地消費已轉弱,監管風波亦壓抑企業情緒。 大摩表示,以兩年年均複合增長爲基礎,內房溢出效應或致今年末季內地經濟增長低於5%。相對明年增長目標5.5%,這是個較低的開始。此外,更快速的增長下行將顯着增加就業市場風險,與社會穩定的政策目標相違背。該行料內地政府將管理內房行業重組程序,並調節措施,提供相當的逆週期放寬,如2015年下半年,2018年末季及2019年下半年一般。 該行補充,認爲已接近政策放寬的拐點。進一步措施料包括更快的財政刺激以支持末季基建;10月中至下旬料進一步降準50點子;末季按揭限額料放寬,並調整限產政策;預取明年1至2月的貸款限額及地方政府特別債限額。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account