植耀輝: 美股個別發展 港股勢弱恐續尋底
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(16日)個別發展,道指及標普500指數偏軟,納指則微升0.14%。經濟數據表現好壞參半,新申領失業救濟金人數略高於市場預期,不過8月零售銷售依然強勁,故投資者繼續觀望下週聯儲局議息會議情況。
至於港股,昨日再跌365點,連續第四個交易日下跌之餘,更一度跌至年內新低24,505點,收市跌幅雖有所收窄,但過去四日累積跌幅仍達到1,538點或5.9%,國指跌幅更大,達到6.2%。大市跌幅頗爲全面,多隻股份均創年內新低。當中與內房相關股份跌勢顯着,碧桂園服務(06098.HK)大跌10.7%,世茂服務(00873.HK)跌幅更達到13%。至於早前急跌之濠賭股個別跌幅仍顯着,金沙中國(01928.HK)續大跌8%,反觀銀娛(00027.HK)僅下跌不足0.2%。
監於投資氣氛仍悲觀,現階段亦不宜搏反彈。事實上困擾港股因素仍多,加上恆指昨日一度破底,如短期再失守24,500點附近,恐怕會引發下一波跌勢,暫建議維持觀望,待恆大(03333.HK)事件稍爲明朗始再作考慮。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指跌穿小雙頂頸線 最壞情況看23,100點
耀才研究部稱,美股三大指數週四(16日)收市個別發展,美國8月零售銷售上升0.7%,與市場預期的下跌相反,加深了聯儲作出縮減買債行動的預期,美匯指數一度觸及三星期高位,美國十年期債息攀升5個基點,至1.351釐,道指盤中最多跌近274點,收市跌63點。納指表現較多升20點。近日內房板塊劇震,有指恆大(03333.HK)海外債券持有人已準備進行債券重組,公司9月底前公司將面臨1.29億美元的債券利息支付,年底前則有8.5億美元債券利息要支付,債務問題未明朗化亦將繼續拖累板塊走勢。
從技術走勢上看,指數短線跌穿了24,800水平,出現了失守小雙頂頸線的型態,多條移動平均線出現死亡交叉,以最悲觀的情況下量度跌幅可下跌至23,100點,亦即2020年10月的低位水平。目前首要支持爲24,500點。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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