瑞信:直播電商正成為常態,行業首選拼多多
瑞信發表研究報吿稱,直播電商正成為常態,預計直播電商2020至2023年複合年均增長率70%,達到4.7萬億元人民幣,因滲透率升至27%。直播電商以創造需求及供應重塑市場,亦為新興品牌提供更多機會。
抖音及快手均為以直播為基礎的平台,該行估計兩者在2023年取得電商市場份額的10%,對現有市場參與者的實收率(take rate)及毛利長遠造成壓力。該行料淘寶及天貓的實收率及經調整息、税及攤銷前利潤率(EBITA margin)將逐步向下,並穩定在大約3.9%及55至60%。
該行首選為美股拼多多,另認為京東可提供盈利能見度及監管風險較低,而快手(1024.HK)風險回報利好及變現有上升空間。另外,該行將阿里巴巴(9988.HK)目標價由226港元調低至218港元,維持跑贏大市評級,因認為集團持續面對競爭。
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