瑞銀:澳門邊境政策放鬆時間預期延至明第二季
瑞銀表示,澳門疫情再起,入境政策進一步放開的時間可能從2021年第四季度推遲至2022年第二季度。
瑞銀投資銀行香港策略師陳志立將2021年至2022年澳門博彩總收入預測分別下調30%至35%,預計隨著入境政策回到7或8月內地和澳門疫情再現之前的政策規定,9月訪澳人數與博彩總收入將回升,10月黃金周料表現較好。
對於2022年及2023年,假設澳門、香港和內地之間的入境政策從2022年第二季度開始放鬆,預計中場業務博彩總收入將回升至2019年水準分別約70%及110%,之前的預期是100%及118%。貴賓博彩總收入則料將分別回升至2019年水準的30%及50%,之前的預期是60%及69%。下調博彩總收入預測導致2022年及2023年EBITDA預測分別下降48%及9%,對應2019年水準的49%/106%。
另外,中國最近對「共同富裕」的推動可能間接影響高端領域,程度取決於高收入群體財富效應受影響的程度,但中下端的中場業務領域增長可能起到部分抵銷作用。
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