新能源運營商價值重估在即，綠色電力交易試點正式啟動
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：國君環保團隊徐強、邵瀟、於歆
2021年9月7日，綠色電力交易試點啟動會在北京召開。
全國性綠電交易試點正式啟動。1）本次是繼國家發改委及能源局批覆《綠色電力交易試點工作方案》後，啟動的首次綠電交易，共17省份259家市場主體參與，達成交易電量79.35億千瓦時。其中，國家電網公司經營區域成交68.98億千瓦時，南方電網公司經營區域內成交10.37億千瓦時。本次交易預計將減少標煤燃燒243.60萬噸，減排二氧化碳607.18萬噸。2）我們在此前行業報吿《碳中和：新能源運營商的突圍之戰》中提到，目前已有的試點綠電交易並不活躍，總體掛牌交易率和成交量都極低，且缺乏全國性系統性交易規則。本次全國性綠色電力交易試點啟動，標誌着我國綠電交易市場機制將逐步完善，綠電消費新模式將全面開啟。
綠色電力的環境價值將通過市場機制充分體現。開展綠電交易的意義，一方面是能夠通過市場機制替代政府補貼，全面反映綠色電力的電能價值和環境價值，提升綠色電力產品的發電收益，能夠增強綠電在市場中的競爭力，有力促進新能源發展，助推我國“雙碳”目標的實現；另一方面，能夠為電力用户購買綠色電力、實現產品零碳需求提供便捷可行的購買途徑，有效滿足用户的綠電消費意願，形成良好的示範效應。
後續綠電交易將逐步擴大到其他可再生能源。在試點初期，綠色電力產品為風電、光伏發電項目的上網電量，後續將逐步擴大到其他可再生能源。綠電交易制度完善，風電、光伏、垃圾焚燒等新能源運營商全面受益。
投資建議：
伴隨碳中和配套政策逐步落實，電價體系、新能源補貼模式都將改變，垃圾焚燒、風電光伏等新能源運營商的盈利能力及現金流水平都將獲得明顯提升，行業有望迎來重新估值的機會。1）垃圾焚燒：垃圾焚燒行業也將受益於綠證交易制度的完善，綠證+順價是未來長期趨勢。推薦垃圾焚燒龍頭三峯環境、瀚藍環境、光大環境、綠色動力、高能環境、偉明環保與上海環境。2）新能源發電：平價上網將引導行業佈局更加合理，同時綠證有望為平價項目帶來額外收益，推薦裝機規模較大、項目資源儲備豐富的全國性風電運營商H股公司龍源電力、大唐新能源、中廣核新能源以及A股風電運營龍頭節能風電，受益標的中閩能源；推薦成長確定性較強且擁有高分紅屬性H股光伏運營商信義能源以及A股光伏運營龍頭太陽能、晶科科技。
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