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《大行報告》花旗料內房股迎來更多見底信號 首選龍湖、潤地、新城發展及旭輝等六股
花旗發表的研究報告指,留意到上半年內房業績有數個明顯的見底訊號,包括是大型房企如如恆大(03333.HK)出現虧損、高槓杆企業如富力(02777.HK)等利潤下跌,增長或規模指引普遍向下,認爲隨着預期重整,展望將更符現實,總體而言長遠贏家將更具可見性並可浴火重生。 該行指出上半年31家上市內房的核心淨利按年跌6%,而未入賬銷售則按年升19%,與去年下半年比較則升10%。利潤收窄則早在預期之內,期內毛利率收窄至24.5%,核心淨利潤率則收窄至8.7%,不過部分被銷售、一般及行政和融資成本較低所抵銷,而業績勝預期的公司主要是受惠租賃收入表現,其中包括潤地(01109.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)、寶龍(01238.HK)、新城發展(01030.HK)等;而表現令人失望的公司則涵蓋土儲壓力較大或利潤較低的企業。上半年派息大致穩定,估計全年雅居樂(03383.HK)、恆大及融信(03301.HK)派息比率將下降。 該行指出上半年銷售表現強勁,不過6月至8月則呈跌勢,儘管供應回升,上半年無房企上調銷售目標,考慮到受按揭及高基數影響令換樓需求減慢,加上市況與2018年類似,估計富力、恆大、遠洋集團(03377.HK)等達標或有挑戰。 該行預期短期行業將於9月及10月反彈,主要因爲經過上半年預期重設、而部分大型房企錄虧損或微利後或逐步淡出,加上踏入第三季銷售持續溫和有助減緩政策憂慮,認爲最新一批土地供應顯示利潤已見底,加上信貸及再融資清晰度增加等,首選龍湖、潤地、新城發展、旭輝控股(00884.HK)、寶龍及龍光集團(03380.HK)。(el/u) ~
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