《大行報告》花旗調整內銀股目標價 首選招行及郵儲行等四股
花旗發表研究報告,指內銀第二季撥備前盈利按年增7.2%,盈利穩健增長24.6%,主因信貸成本下降,但因7月份突然降準,板塊股價有所調整,因意外地降準導致市場擔心貸款市場報價利率(LPR)潛在下調,及資產質素惡化。該行認爲,內銀股價調整過度,基於內地今年不太可能下調LPR,及監管機構強調防範系統性風險和避免大規模違約。
展望未來,由於信貸需求持續疲軟,中資銀行預計淨利息收益率(NIM)壓力可能會持續,但集團將積極優化資產結構,包括向需求較高的零售貸款(信用卡和消費貸款)分配更多貸款額度,帶來更高的收益;及減少高成本融資風險。在該行覆蓋的內銀股當中,交通銀行(03328.HK)及建行(00939.HK)淨利息收益率走勢最理想。該行預計,今年內銀第二季手續費收入增長強勁,主要受財富管理業務理想所推動。
根據該行就內銀對問題企業及地方政府融資平臺(LGFV)的看法,相信招商銀行(03968.HK)、郵儲銀行(01658.HK)風險曝露較小,與南京銀行(601009.SH)及平安銀行(000001.SZ)列作行業首選;而風險曝露較大的包括民生銀行(01988.HK)、中國光大銀行(06818.HK)、中信銀行(00998.HK)。
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