摩通:料內房板塊已接近谷底 大型內房中首選龍湖及中海外
摩根大通發表研究報吿,指所覆蓋內房上半年純利按年升3%,較預期低3%,主因交付量較低;純利平均達成該行全年預測41%。該行料所覆蓋內房全年純利平均升4%。開發商對信貸及市場態度審慎,惟該行相信有強勁資產負債表的開發商對前景審慎樂觀,料下半年地價將下滑。有好幾家開發商已增加槓桿及儲備現金等待收購機會。在這環境下,該行稱,唯一購買內房板塊的理由是具防守性的股息率,在信貸或政策輕微放寬前捕捉先機。大型內房中首選龍湖(0960.HK)及中海外(0688.HK)。中型內房首選融創(1918.HK)及世茂集團(0813.HK)。該行另上調國有內房綠地控股(600606.SH)評級由“中性”升至“增持”,另升中國金茂(0817.HK)及遠洋集團(3377.HK)評級由“減持”升至“中性”。
報吿稱,內房板塊已接近谷底。上半年所覆蓋內房毛利率平均收縮1.2個百分點,不過,與之前下行週期不同,現時毛利率下滑主因地價成本高企。所以,減值情況不顯著,整體幅度可預測。三分之二的內房料今年上半年或下半年毛利率見底,其餘三分之一料明年見底。整體而言,谷底可見度更高,風險可以量化。因此,該行平均下調所覆蓋內房盈測12%。
摩通表示,二十大內房上半年投資資本擴約5,290億元人民幣,較去年下半年多5%;當中60%由預售支持,20%由舉債支持。投入資本回報率料穩定於目前7%至8%水平。該行料行業未來數年盈利增長約10%。該行料所覆蓋內房今年核心淨利按年升4%,明年升13%,後年升10%。該行稱,內房選股首要信貸安全,其次是估值較便宜。
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