植耀輝: ADP數據差道指跌 港股走勢略見改善
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(1日)個別發展,經濟數據表現好壞參半,當中較受注目之ADP私人就業數據表現遠遜於市場預期,不過8月ISM製造業PMI則受新訂單表現理想下較預期高,最終納指上升50點或0.33%,收報15,309點,再創歷史新高;至於標普500指數則微升1點,收報4,524點,不過道指則下跌48點,收報35,312點。
港股方面,昨日走勢大致向好,雖然開市早段一度下跌過百點,但科技股支持大市表現,個別弱勢股如平安(02318.HK)及中移動(00941.HK)等亦見反彈,最終恆指收報26,028點,上升149點,成交持續暢旺,總成交金額1,818億元。成份股中以海底撈(06862.HK)表現最佳,上升6.3%,其次為內房股龍湖(00960.HK),上升4.8%。至於早前強勢之新能源股現沽壓,信義光能(00968.HK)下跌5%,為表現最差成份股,值得留意的是該股早段一度衝高至2月下旬以來高位。
港股9月開局似乎不俗,並能夠延續上日升勢,不過短期變數仍多,特別須留意的是美國本週將公布之就業數據表現,其好壞將對聯儲局未來部署有更大啟示。另外,雖然大市過去兩個交易日出現反彈,但升勢主要來自部分弱勢股,因此大市形勢是否已有所改善仍屬未知之數。故即使大市能企穩26,000點水平,只是暫仍未宜過於樂觀,預期大市將繼續於現水平上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指短線目標26,878點
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(1日)美股三大指數個別發展,美國8月份ADP私人職位增加37.4萬個,遠低市場預期的63.8萬個;Markit製造業PMI終值61.1低於預期的61.2,不過ISM製造業指數報59.9則好過預的58.5,參差的經濟數據拖累大市反覆,納指再破頂。熱門中概股多數上漲,嗶哩嗶哩(BILI.US)、百度(BIDU.US)、虎牙(HUYA.US)、世紀互聯(VNET.US)漲超5%,攜程(TCOM.US)、阿里(BABA.US)、騰訊音樂(TME.US)漲近4%。深交所將快手(01024.HK)調入深港通下的港股通股票名單,留意北水對其的買入量。港股昨日重返26,000點水平,資金開始轉馬至一直偏弱的科網股,同時成交額亦增至1,800億,走勢上有轉好的現象,下一個阻力位將位於約26,900點水平。
從技術走勢上看,指數再度突破20天線的水平,14天RSI接近50水準,走勢開始轉強,意味著指數有條件依保力加通道上軸的水平向上延伸,首要目標望50天線亦即7月26日的下跌裂口頂部,即26,878點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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