瑞銀:「共同富裕」促進經濟結構調整和再平衡
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,「共同富裕」已成爲近期一系列政策檔和高層講話的重要主題,這並非全新提法,但其重要性在中國國民經濟和社會發展第十四個五年規劃出臺之後明顯提升。
他指,預計政策將支援提高勞動報酬和財產性收入,這意味着政策會支援中小企業和服務業的發展,加強勞動者權益保障,推進土地制度和三權分置改革,完善資本市場基礎制度;增加政府的公共服務供給;完善基本養老保險、醫療保險和失業保險等社會保障。政府可能推進個人所得稅和消費稅改革,但預計未來數年調整比較溫和,並逐步實施。
他又指,房地產稅立法可能加快步伐、但實際推出需要一段時間,而短期內應不會開徵遺產稅。她認爲共同富裕相關政策對經濟的潛在影響包括:促進經濟結構調整和再平衡,促進消費、尤其是中低收入人羣的消費;政府在提供基本公共服務上扮演更重要的角色,而私人部門的參與可能受到限制和規範;私人部門可以在其他行業或海外市場尋求投資機會;居民可將更多的資產投入金融產品投資;政府財政負擔將逐步增加。
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