《業績前瞻》券商料港交所(00388.HK)中期多賺逾34% 關注營運策略及IPO改革指引
港交所(00388.HK)將於下週三(11日)公佈2021年中期業績，受惠於港股今年首季交投大增(今年首季平均每日成交金額爲2,244億按年升86%；今年上半年證券市場平均每日成交額爲1,882億元按年升60%)，但第二季按季有所回落下，本網綜合4間券商預測，港交所2021年上半年純利預測介乎68.32億元至71.4億元，較2020年上半年純利52.33億元，按年上升30.6%至36.4%；中位數70.5億元，按年升34.7%。
綜合3間券商預測港交所2021年上半年收入介乎100.04億元至108.56億元，較2020年上半年收入79.39億元，按年上升26.1%至36.7%。中金指早前小鵬汽車(09868.HK)以雙重上市方式登陸港股引起市場關注，指雙重上市需滿足港交所一般上市要求，但不享有二次上市19C章節下的豁免條款，但是滿足了納入互聯互通的潛在要求，兼且港交所宣佈將全新FINI首次公開招股程序、全面簡化及數字化本港IPO程序，投資者將關注港交所相關業務策略及IPO改革指引等。
【次季景氣回落 關注IPO改革】
中金本月初發表報告，估計港交所今年上半年純利按年升36%至71億元；該行估計港交所今年第二季利按年升10%至32.6億元、料總收入按年增12%至53.3億元(若剔除投投資後主營收入按年升21%至46.9億元)，料其今年第二季盈利按年增速低於日均交投，主因衍生品的期權的平均每日交易量(ADV)按年下滑及投資收益受去年第二季高基數的影響。
中信證券上週五發表報告，估計港交所今年上半年利按年升33.8%至70億元、今年第二季純利32億元按年升7%(按季下滑7%)、估計第二季收入52億元按年升8%(按季跌13%)。該行指，港股於今年第二季現貨市場表現平穩，日均成交額1,513億元按年升33%(按季下滑33%)，而該行估計港股2021年全年日均成交額有望保持在1,700億元以上水平。
中信證券指，今年第二季南向日均成交額353億港元按年升81%(按季跌42%)，北向日均成交額1,010億人民幣按年升44%(按季下滑42%)，該行按全口徑測算，香港市場港通成交額佔比約12%，陸股通佔A股成交額約6%。在外部環境不確定性增強的前提下，香港市場雙向融通地位日益重，料互聯互通的收入貢獻有望持續提升。
-----------------------------------------
本網綜合4間券商預測，港交所2021年上半年純利預測介乎68.32億元至71.4億元，較2020年上半年純利52.33億元，按年上升30.6%至36.4%；中位數70.5億元，按年升34.7%。
券商│2021年中期純利預測│按年變幅
華泰證券│71.4億元│36.4%
中金│71億元│+35.7%
中信證券│70億元│+33.8%
摩根大通│68.32億元│+30.6%
按港交所2020年上半年純利52.33億元計算
-----------------------------------------
綜合3間券商預測港交所2021年上半年收入介乎100.04億元至108.56億元，較2020年上半年收入79.39億元，按年上升26.1%至36.7%。
券商│2021年中期收入預測│按年變幅
華泰證券│108.56億元│+36.7%
中金│101.78億元│+28.2%
摩根大通│100.04億元│+26.1%
按港交所2020年上半年收入79.39億元計算
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
