《即日市評》恆指急滑千一點 成交大增 科網及教育股續挫
受科網及金融股跌勢拖累下,恆指今日向下及失守兩萬七關。美股上週五造好,道指更首次升穿35,000點收市升0.7%,但市場關注中美關係發展;執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率跌至1.238釐,美匯指數跌至92.82;美股道指期貨最新跌211點或0.6%,納指期貨最新跌0.24%。市場關注中國監管政策對科網及互聯網行業影響,上證綜指全日跌82點或2.3%收3,467點、深證成指下滑2.7%、內地創業板指數下滑2.8%,滬深兩市成交額共1.42萬億人民幣。
恆指今早低開496點,早段跌幅曾收窄至443點見26,878點,其後跌幅擴大,尾市曾跌1,144點一度低見26,177點,全日跌1,129點或4.1%,收26,192點,連跌兩日(累跌1,531點或5.5%);國指跌483點或4.9%,收9,355點;恆生科技指數跌477點或6.6%,收6,790點。大市成交總額按日增92%至2,682.46億元,自4月8日(當日成交額2,811.3億元)以來最高水平。滬、深港通南下交易半日錄得淨流出金額分別爲3.55億及22.74億元人民幣。物管股受壓,碧桂園服務(06098.HK)挫16.6%
【憂監管風險 科網股捱沽】
科網股捱沽,騰訊(00700.HK)股價失守500元關,全日下挫7.7%收490元,國家市監局責令騰訊三十日內解除網絡音樂獨家版權。美團(03690.HK)及快手(01024.HK)股價各挫13.8%及12%,嗶哩嗶哩(09626.HK)及網易(09999.HK)股價各下滑11.5%及13.3%。市場監管總局等七部門聯合印發《關於落實網絡餐飲平臺責任切實維護外賣送餐員權益的指導意見》,在完善社會保障方面,督促平臺及第三方合作單位爲建立勞動關係的外賣送餐員參加社會保險,支持其他外賣送餐員參加社會保險。
野村發表報告,預期騰訊次季收入大致符合預測,投資增加料令盈利增長放緩,但仍有可能超出市場預期,維持「買入」評級。該行估計騰訊第二財季線上遊戲收入將按年增長11%,增幅較首季的15%減慢,增長主要來自手遊,主要由於基數效應及期內缺乏焦點新遊戲的發行。野村將騰訊2021至2022財年非國際會計準則淨利潤預測下調5%及9%,以反映線上遊戲收入預測下調,料2021財年線上遊戲收入及盈利將分別增長12%及13%,早前預期爲16%及19%,目標價由731元降至698元。
【跌股近四成 教育股續挫】
港股今日主板市寬轉弱,主板股票的升跌比率爲7比39(上日爲14比29),下跌股份1,642只(跌幅4.5%);恆指成份股今日9只股份上升,下跌股47只,升跌比率爲16比81(上日爲10比84);大市今日錄沽空414.04億元,佔可沽空股份成交2,416.31億元的17.135%(上日16.763%)。
國務院指內地學科類培訓機構一律不得上市融資,嚴禁資本化運作。教育股受壓。新東方(09901.HK)及新東方在線(01797.HK)料監管更新將對業務產生重大不利影響,新東方挫47%報16元,新東方在線挫33.5%報3.94元。就內地印發《關於進一步減輕義務教育階段學生作業負擔和校外培訓負擔的意見》,高盛發表報告表示,新政策要求K-12後學科輔導機構強制轉換爲非營利機構、第二是限制外資參與,包括併購、委託經營、特許經營等,以及所有規則的應用(包括假期和週末課後輔導(AST)禁令),不僅適用於爲中小學生提供服務的課後輔導機構(G1-9),也適用於爲高中生提供服務的課後輔導機構(G10-12)。
高盛估計,內地相關課後輔導的可擴大潛在市場範圍規模,由原來2020年的1,000億美元,至2025年會降至240億美元。而該行料2021年及2022年中國相關課後輔導的可擴大潛在市場範圍各爲820億美元及240億美元。隨着週末、夏季/冬季假期的官方課後輔導禁令(據該行估計佔相關總收入75%至80%),這引發了該行對內地K-12後的2021年至2023年相關行業收入預測削減70%至90%。
該行下調對新東方H股評級由「買入」降至「中性」,將目標價由110港元大降至28港元;該行維持對新東方在線(01797.HK)「沽售」評級,大降目標價由10.5港元降至3.9港元。
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