《大行報告》摩通上調港銀股目標價 首選中銀(02388.HK)及恆生(00011.HK)
摩根大通發表報告指,港銀在公佈去年全年及今年首季業務後,由於並無強勁的催化劑,市場未有上調其盈利預測,於過去數月港銀股價窄幅上落。該行相信即將公佈的中期業績亦難有驚喜,不過相信可進一步確認中期正面因素。因此,在近期港銀股價再度回落後,未來12至18個月港銀股價上升的機會較下跌大。
該行相信,雖然港銀淨息差將續受壓,惟手續費收入改善將抵銷相關負面因素。另外,相信信貸成本下降的情況將持續,由於預期信貸虧損進一步放寬,亦受惠於本港物業市場趨穩定,尤其是小型銀行去年信貸成本較高,今年上半年的改善情況將較明顯。該行並指,雖然虛擬銀行市佔率持續擴張,發展策略亦較爲進取,惟相信未來12至18個月未會對港銀投資表現造成大影響。
港銀板塊中,該行首選中銀香港(02388.HK)及恆生銀行(00011.HK),指其在未來12至18個月業務復甦的前提下最能受惠。上半年信貸成本下降將推動銀行盈利,相信區域性銀行如匯控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK),及小型銀行如大新銀行(02356.HK)盈利受推動的情況較爲明顯。
該行對港銀目標價調整如下:
股份?評級?目標價(元)
中銀香港(02388.HK)?增持?31.7→33.3
恆生銀行(00011.HK)?增持?163.0→172.0
大新銀行(02356.HK)?中性?8.5→9.0
大新金融(00440.HK)?增持?28.6→29.8
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