《大行報告》高盛降玖紙(02689.HK)及理紙(02314.HK)評級至「中性」兼削目標價 面對能源成本上升
高盛發表研究報告,降玖龍紙業(02689.HK)及理文造紙(02314.HK)投資評級由「買入」下調至「中性」,以反映減碳勢頭下成本優勢褪色。該行稱,內地紙企逾60%碳排放來自發電,並主要來自轄下火電廠,該行料內地造紙業減碳路徑將來自減少轄下電廠煤炭使用。
報告稱,即使內地紙業僅佔內地總碳排放的1%,但內地紙業有沿海城市敞口較大,料受地方政府火電使用規範所限制。該行料廣東東莞「煤改氣」要求只是開始,其他城市將會追隨,特別是浙江及江蘇等率先限制煤消耗的沿海已發展城市。
在這環境下,高盛料玖紙及理紙這類完全依賴火電及沿海城市敞口較大的紙企,未來數年面對能源成本上升,以及不同省份減碳力度不均,成本難以轉嫁下,將面對更大負面影響。相對而言,向電網購電的紙企(佔行業30%至40%)或較多使用再生能源,如轉廢為能的山鷹紙業(600567.SH)等,則定位較佳及面對減碳勢頭成本影響有限。
報告補充,與紙企討論後,得悉7月付運仍呈季節性弱勢,即使東莞200萬噸產能暫停,但加價幅度仍有限。該行料箱板紙明年供需關係輕微轉弱,主因出口見頂及原材料供應限制放緩。該行下調內地紙業2021至2023財年利差預測每噸100至150元人民幣。考慮行業利差趨勢及成本上升,下調玖紙及理紙2021至2023財年單位純利預測每噸介乎140至280元人民幣。高盛相應下調玖紙及理紙2021至2023財年盈測介乎27%至35%,玖紙目標價由16.5元降至11.2元;理紙目標價由9元降至6.8元。
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