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渣打上調中國今年經濟增長預測至8.8% 料人行下季再降準
阿思達克 07-16 12:30
渣打上調今年中國經濟增長預測,由原來的增長8%調升至8.8%。渣打大中華及北亞區首席經濟師丁爽在記者會上表示,雖然中國最新公佈的第二季經濟增長稍低於市場預期,但於財政及貨幣政策收緊的環境下增長仍達7.9%,屬非常強勁水平。

他提到,中國經濟政策取向有變,近期強調內外形勢複雜,估計政策取向將由上半年穩健偏緊,轉至下半年的中性,意味取向更爲寬鬆,預期政策措施對中國經濟的拖累會減少,財政政策亦會更爲積極,以對內需作更大支撐。

丁爽預期,人行於今年第四季會再降準一次,幅度50點子,不過未具條件下調公開市場操作及中期借貸便利等的政策利率,但一年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)可能在近期下調5點子。

渣打中國宏觀策略部主管劉潔則指,中國與環球央行政策正處轉捩點,G7等主要央行預告開始「收水」,中國經濟政策卻更爲寬鬆,預期市場波動性會增加。雖然人民幣短期仍有出口強勁及貿易順差增大等利好因素支持,不過由於下半年不確定性多,例如美聯儲更快收水可能對市場造成大沖擊,因此該行料人民幣兌美元會有輕微貶值,今年底估計處6.58水平。

香港方面,該行大中華區高級經濟師劉健恆維持對香港今年經濟增長6.9%的預測,認爲本港第一季出口有亮點,第二至四季經濟逐步向好亦非難事。而本港放鬆限聚令後,飲食、零售及建策業等就業情況改善,預期失業率在下半年有望繼續下降,但亦要留意本土疫情是否有反彈風險。

另外,他稱過去一年受惠全球貨幣政策寬鬆,大量資金來港並流向資產市場,加上利率低企,令樓市向好。在美聯儲不更趨向鷹派的情況下,料下半年Hibor仍會處較低水平。

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