《大行報告》美銀證券平均降內房股目標價9% 首選萬科、潤地、新城發展及世茂集團
美銀證券發表的研究報告指,近三個月內房股股價跌約兩成,主要因爲毛利受壓以及近期信貸壓力的憂慮,內地上週五(9日)宣佈降準帶來正面驚喜,料行業將受惠,該行指出除宏觀寬鬆政策外,投資者有望見到行業債券收益率下降,以及壞消息在8月出清,包括是上半年盈利表現較弱以及潛在利潤指引下調等。該行的經濟師估計政策取態將傾向寬鬆,加上投資者對行業持「減持」態度,故料即使宏觀或房地產政策輕微放寬,內房股亦將現反彈。
該行認爲隨着市場氣氛潛在有改善,將內房股目標價平均降9%,以反映預測或估值倍數下降及利潤收縮的影響,傾向選擇在高增長非發展物業業務有較大覆蓋面的開發商,以及與增長潛力比較估值相對低的開發商,首選萬科企業(02202.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、新城發展(01030.HK)及世茂集團(00813.HK),維持對碧桂園(02007.HK)、中國金茂(00817.HK)及富力地產(02777.HK)評級「跑輸大市」。
該行認爲受地價較高影響,現時估計開發物業利潤到2023年將降至介乎22%至23%,並將2021至2023年每股盈測降3%至12%,假設地價在下半年趨向溫和,現時估計行業三年的年複合增長將爲8%。不過假如地價維持現水平,該行對行業的2023年預測將有5%的下行。
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