瑞銀汪濤:全面降準非貨幣政策基調顯着轉向 政策正常化仍會繼續推進
人民銀行下調存款準備金率0.5個百分點,釋放約1萬億元人民幣長期資金。瑞銀投資研究部表示,今次降準並非貨幣政策基調顯着轉向,政策正常化仍會繼續推進。
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,降準會增加銀行體系流動性、有助於降低市場利率和實體經濟綜合融資成本,認爲貨幣政策正常化仍會繼續推進,包括信貸增速會在下半年繼續放緩、宏觀審慎監管可能依然偏緊。更重要的是,認爲近期經濟增長動能走弱的重要原因是因爲部分地區疫情反覆帶來局部活動限制、以及全球供應鏈存在一些供給瓶頸,包括晶片、大宗商品等,而這些因素或已經有所緩解、或有望在未來幾個月逐步緩解。今年中國GDP增速仍可以大概率顯着超過政府的底線目標,並不需要過多的額外政策支援。
她續指出,票據融資走強,推動6月新增人民幣貸款超預期,銀行貸款走強支撐新增社融走強,而影子信貸進一步收縮。
對股市影響方面, 瑞銀證券A股策略分析師孟磊認爲,此次全面降準有望在短期內提振市場情緒,改善股票市場流動性。但另一方面,信貸增速放緩限制了股票市場估值大幅提升的空間。根據該行和投資者的交流,降準在某種程度上加大了股票投資者對二至三季度經濟復甦可能不及市場預期的擔憂。該行認爲,在貨幣政策並未大幅轉向寬鬆的背景下,新增的流動性並不會推動市場持續上漲。在年底信貸增速企穩,投資者將盈利預測切換至2022年後,股市纔有望重拾上升趨勢。
孟磊預計,流動性敏感板塊與成長風格有望在短期內跑贏 ,包括國防軍工、電子、電腦、傳媒等、具有強勁盈利增長預期的賽道股,包括電動車、電池、新能源等將跑贏大盤。但另一方面,股票投資者對第二至三季經濟復甦節奏趨弱的擔憂或將使銀行、保險、消費等板塊在短期承壓。儘管在短期內我們認爲成長風格有望跑贏市場,但互聯網板塊或將因監管壓力持續增強而繼續跑輸大盤。
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