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郵儲銀行(601658):零售戰略升級持續推進
格隆匯 06-28 00:02
公司近況近期我們調研郵儲銀行,就零售戰略升級、近期經營情況等進行交流。我們認為銀行走在正確的零售升級道路上,看好中長期實現盈利成長性。評論財富管理體系建設帶動客户數及AUM增長。1Q21末,郵儲銀行服務零售客户6.3億户,零售AUM 12萬億元,較上年未增長近8000億元。其中,VIP客户3831萬户,較上年末+5.2%;財富客户311萬户,較上年末+8.3%安户和ALM的增長也帶動手續費收入增長迅速,1021淨收入65.1億元,同比增長超50%,主要來自代理業務。客羣定位、產品結構不同於其他零售銀行。郵儲銀行主要針對6.3億較為下沉的零售客户,提供以“固收+"為主的多元化財富管理產品。零售存量AUM中儲蓄最多,其次為保險、理財、基金、國債等,郵儲客羣對類保本產品需求更為旺盛。一季度新增AUM中儲蓄佔比約50%,新增儲蓄佔比低於存量佔比,主要由於銀行積極培養存量客户理財意識,也致力於吸引外部客户。計劃營收的3%投入科技領域。2019年起,郵儲銀行每年投入約3%的營業收入至科技領域,管理層預計2021年將延續該投入水平。截至目前,包括貸款、存款、支付結算、資金管理、非息收入等業務功能的核心繫統已上線;渠道方面開發展業系統、手機銀行APP不斷迭代;大數據分析和風控系統亦在開發;科技人才方面內部和外包一起發力,目前合計達1萬人。息羞降幅逐步收窄。1021郵儲銀行息差為2.4%,較4Q20回升2bps,展望未來,管理層預計資產端收益率持平,其中貸款利率存在壓力,投資利率中樞同比抬升,負債端存款定價逐步迴歸理性,成本率趨穩或下降。此外,郵儲銀行積極調整資產負債結構,資產端向零售貸款傾斜,負債段壓降3年期以上存款佔比,有利於提振息羞。已全面啟動高級法,預計今年底具備申報條件。參考其他國有大行與招行的資本充足率數據,我們預計郵儲採用高級法後可提振資本充足率1-2個百分點,整個過程需2-3年時間。高級法具體實施時間取決於監管。估值與建議目前郵儲A/H股交易於0.8/0.7x 2021e P/B,維持盈利預測和A/H跑贏行業評級。維持A股目標價7.69元,對應1.20x 202le P/B,較當前股價有51.1%的上漲空間,H股目標價7.20港幣,對應1.00x 2021 P/B和37.4%上漲空間。風險淨手續費收入增速不及預期。
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