仙鶴股份(603733):全年盈利有超預期空間 品類擴張動能強勁
公司近況近期公司管理層參與了我們的中期策略會並與投資者進行了交流。我們認為隨着下游需求繼續旺盛和漿價超跌,公司全年業績有望超預期,中期公司作為特種紙行業隱形冠軍,有望通過自身的全品類供應優勢,在大客户渠道上加載食品卡、HNB緩釋材料等新品類,未來3-5年有望實現高速增長,並有望通過佈局紙漿原材料打開降本空間,我們維持跑贏行業評級,並上調目標價25%至42.5元。評論2Q21公司盈利強勁,下半年仍有望繼續超預期。我們認為,上半年得益於儲備的低價木漿原料,公司成本處於低位,同時在木漿大漲背景催化下,公司1Q21快速提漲成品紙價格10-20%不等,2Q21公司毛利率環比改善空間可期。同時,下半年是消費旺季,且上半年公司約15萬噸產能落地,下半年有望充分貢獻產能增量,我們預期公司2H21銷量有望明顯高於1H21;同時,木漿外盤報價近期明顯下滑,如下半年漿價環比下行,且公司產品售價仍保持高位穩定,我們預期公司2H21盈利比有望高於上半年,超過市場預期。公司日常消費類和裝飾原紙領域銷量有望維持快速增長。我們向管理層瞭解到,公司日常消費大類產品中,伴隨着熱轉印紙需求領域的擴張和物流業持續快速發展,熱轉印紙和標籤離型紙市場空間擴容迅速;同時,受益於竣工向好,公司裝飾原紙訂單亦較飽滿,伴隨着公司在這些領域投放新增產能,我們認為公司日常消費類和裝飾原紙銷量中期有望實現年均10%+快速增長。“禁塑令”下食品與醫療特紙市場空間明顯擴容,品類擴張注入成長新動能。我們認為,公司積極把握“禁塑令”下需求成長機遇,一方面積極開拓存量大客户新需求,憑藉自身全品類優勢在大客户渠道上迅速加載新品類(如紙吸管、標籤紙、牛皮紙袋、食品卡等),另一方面同步積極擴產以承接新需求,我們預期5年內食品紙銷量有望從2020年約10萬噸成長至50萬噸以上。此外,在煙草領域,我們認為公司已通過菲莫國際、英美煙草、日本煙草審核,有望助力公司打開海外成長天花板;同時公司提前在國內佈局HNB釋緩材料,有望在傳統煙草大客户渠道上加載此項新產品,業務潛力較大。估值與建議由於上調了銷量和毛利率假設,我們上調公司2021/22e EPS 12%/4%至1.61/1.95元,當前股價對應2021/22e 20.2x/16.8x P/E,我們維持跑贏行業評級,上調目標價25%至42.5元,對應2021/22e 26.4x/21.8x P/E,隱含30%的上行空間。風險需求不及預期;木漿價格超預期上漲;行業競爭加劇風險。
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