瑞銀:料內銀淨息差前景改善 首選建行(0939.HK)
瑞銀髮表研究報吿指,在4月份進行了第8輪的調查,調查了531間不同規模及行業的中國企業。結果發現,不同行業獲得貸款的難度都不相同。在疫情大流行後,監管機構推動政策正常化,近期信貸緊縮尚未得到反映。該行認為,在利率上升的環境中,銀行,尤其是具優質存款的,能提供好過預期的淨息差表現。
瑞銀表示,到今年底,社會融資規模(TSF)增長或放緩至11%,信貸緊縮或在今年餘下時間持續。由於信貸收緊,市場利率或會微升。該行認為,信貸供應逐漸收緊,銀行在今年首季的前期活動增加,企業在經濟強勁復甦的情況下,對信貸的強勁需求將逐步推高市場利率。由於貸款收益率上升,中資銀行的淨息差前景改善。
該行指出,在強勁融資需求和逐步收緊的信貸供應支撐下,貸款收益率或有正面驚喜,並有助淨息差表現優於當前低迷的預期。擁有良好存款的銀行將受惠於利率上升的環境,並提供更好的撥備前利潤(PPOP)趨勢。
該行又指,近期將農業銀行(1288.HK)H股及中國銀行(3988.HK)H股評級上調至“買入”,而瑞銀在中國大型銀行的首選為建設銀行(0939.HK)。中期而言,該行繼續看好零售推動的股份,即招商銀行(3968.HK)和平安銀行,因為這些股份有結構性增長的機會。
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