摩根大通:內房開發商策略存在分歧 擁零售商場將成長期贏家
摩根大通發表報吿,今年首5月內房銷售額按年上升38%,單計5月則上升15%,料開發商已完成全年目標的38%,高於歷史平均水平,按照目前速度,開發商應該有望超過目標5%左右,實現約15%按年增長。
報吿又指,現時開發商策略存在分歧,部分開發商試圖以較低的利潤率加速週轉,同時部分近期高銷售的開發商都積極在近期的土地拍賣中,亦有部分開發商對土地市場較為謹慎,或認為地價在第四季會向下。該行又指,現時市場一方面擔心高地價,但同時亦擔心下一個週期盈利趨勢會停滯,加上政策緊縮背景下,市場信心不足,但該行認為市場傾向悲觀,或即將公佈業績或帶來驚喜。
報吿指,最近土地拍賣中,有能力開發綜合項目的開發商有一定優勢,預計這一因素將導致相關公司在下一個週期重估,繼續看好華潤置地(1109.HK)、龍湖(0960.HK)、旭輝(0884.HK)。
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